home | about us | contact | site map | credits | disclaimer | bookmark

Slot beaters slot strategy: another wolf in sheep's clothing

Monday, October 26, 2009

Slot beaters slot strategy: another wolf in sheep's clothing

Gambling systems - methods of structuring your betting with a view to negating or reducing the house edge - are as old as they are bogus. I put together a betting systems page a few years ago which describes some of the betting techniques employed and why they have no value. This post relates to one such system in particular.

A day or so ago I had my attention drawn to the slotbeater strategy discussion at Casinomeister, in which a player apparently lost money following the advice laid out on the slotbeaters slot strategy web page.

I took a close look at the page in question. Like all betting systems, it contains many inaccuracies:

The strategy we use is actually extremely simple, it's a bit like a roulette progressive method but the key difference is that each spin on a slot is not an 'all or nothing' bet, because you are always getting some return on your bets. This means you can progress very slowly with a significantly lower overall risk of losing.

The first & most important target is: to leave the slot with more credits than we start with.

Given that what we want is the bonus rounds and that on average they occur once every 130 - 150 spins, what we do is start with small bets & then gradually increase them the longer we go on. This is on the basis that the longer we go without the feature hitting, the more probable it is.

So we play say 100 spins at our minimum (depending on the slot, the minimum is usually either 2c or 5c per line). Then we increase the bets in small increments every 25 or 50 spins e.g. 2c, 4c, 6c, 8c.

If we get past say 250 - 300 spins with no feature, or the bank has dropped by more than our pre-set limit, we stop & try a different slot. Sometimes we alter the total bet by changing the number of win-lines as well as, or instead of, just changing the stake/line. And that's pretty much all there is to it.

The opening comment, to "leave the slot with more credits than we start with", is rampantly silly. If we could achieve this, casinos wouldn't exist.

The system is one of many variations of the Martingale progression, in which bets are increased in line with losses, based on the false premise that the longer the losing streak, the greater the liklehood of an eventual win. In this case, the sought after win is the bonus round:

...what we want is the bonus rounds and that on average they occur once every 130 - 150 spins. What we do is start with small bets & then gradually increase them the longer we go on.

The average frequency of bonus rounds is beside the point, as eventually there will be a drought of bonus rounds so extreme as to result in the loss of your entire bankroll before any wins are achieved, rendering the average hit rate irrelevant.

This is the reason that all martingale variants fail.

The author's most ill-informed claim follows on from this, in justification of the proposed increase in bets:

This is on the basis that the longer we go without the feature hitting, the more probable it is.

This is the gambler's fallacy in its purest form, the belief that the probability of an event somehow varies in relation to the occasion of its last occurance. In reality, it doesn't matter how many spins have taken place without a bonus round; the probablity of an occurance of the bonus round remains constant.

Assuming a probability of one in 150, whether a bonus round has just occurred or has not occurred in the last 500 spins, the probability is still one in 150. As such, the recommended bet increases serve to do nothing other than increase exposure to the house edge and cause greater loss.

Money management, the inveterate companion of gambling systems, gets a look in:

Money Management gives further targets which limits potential loss amount in a given month, but with no limit to how much can be won...

Before playing any game we set targets on how much we are prepared to lose and how much we are prepared to win...

Stop-losses and win limits are beneficial only insofar as they limit your exposure to the house edge and therefore limit your losses. Less play = less money lost.

Ironically enough, the martingalesque nature of the progression in question will in fact result in the loss of more money, not less. In order to restrain your losses to non-martingale levels, in a martingale progression, you would simply have to place fewer bets.

The description is concluded thus:

The philosophy here at SlotBeaters is not to go out & just ruthlessly play casino bonuses for profit as if it's some kind of boring job, but to experience the entertainment & fun of playing slots for real money, but without the risk of losing a fortune.

In reality, playing bonuses "ruthlessly for profit" can be quite entertaining, as with many money-making activities. Losing, the inevitable result of this system, is not at all entertaining. And while you may not lose a fortune if you observe sensible loss limits, you will still lose.

As such, the writer has it backwards.

All things being equal, this system is a lot more destructive than the usual martingale variants, which tend to advocate play on baccarat, roulette or blackjack, games with house edges up to eight times lower than slots.

In conclusion, to quote Richard Epstein:

The number of 'guaranteed' betting systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion.

Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history.

Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamcis.


When you see people advocating betting systems, run away as fast as possible.

To end on a light note: the Casinomeister thread led to mention of the Monty Hall problem, of which I was entirely unfamiliar. It took me fully two days to understand the simple logic behind the counter-intuitive solution.

Fascinating. See if you can do better than I did.

3 Previous Comments

Most ridiculous were all the defenders of the "strategyguy". Some even seemed to believe it works and concentrated on jumping on the OP.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:36 pm  

I was the OP in that thread and I actually didn't follow the bogus advice or lose any money Martingaling (kinda passed that phase of my life around 14 yrs old :p) - I was attempting to use satire but my writing skills leave a lot to be desired.

Monty Hall is a total head-trip. When it was first presented to us in Applied Statistics at uni, I was ADAMANT and LOUDLY VOCAL...but for the wrong side lol. Embarrassing. When it finally 'clicked', I felt like a right twat moron :)

Great article above though. Well done!


By Blogger Jonny Vincent, at 10:40 pm  

Looks like the whole thing panned out satisfactorily in the end, on all fronts.

I wrote a gambling control system a while back. It's a gambling system, and it's mathematically valid. The only downer is that it doesn't promise any winning, but rather gives you an easy way to estimate your hourly expenditure, and adjust it as required. I included also a cheap & cheerful shortcut option, which bypasses most of the explanations and requires a couple of very simple calculations to get you up to speed.

You can use it in tandem with the "slotbeaters slot strategy", to estimate how much you'll lose.

By Blogger 100% Gambler, at 1:48 am  

Post a Comment

May 2005 | June 2005 | July 2005 | September 2005 | October 2005 | November 2005 | December 2005 | January 2006 | February 2006 | March 2006 | April 2006 | May 2006 | August 2006 | October 2006 | January 2007 | February 2007 | March 2007 | May 2007 | June 2007 | July 2007 | January 2008 | February 2008 | March 2008 | April 2008 | June 2008 | July 2008 | September 2008 | October 2008 | December 2008 | January 2009 | February 2009 | March 2009 | May 2009 | June 2009 | July 2009 | August 2009 | September 2009 | October 2009 | November 2009 | December 2009 | January 2010 | February 2010 | March 2010 | April 2010 | May 2010 | June 2010 | July 2010 | August 2010 | October 2010 | November 2010 | December 2010 | January 2011 | February 2011 | March 2011 | April 2011 | May 2011 | June 2011 | July 2011 | August 2011 | September 2011 | December 2011 | February 2012 | May 2012 | July 2012 | August 2012 | March 2016 | April 2016 | June 2016 | November 2016 | December 2016 | March 2017 | May 2017 | June 2017 | August 2017 | August 2021 | October 2021 | May 2022 | December 2023 | Atom feed
© 2005 hundred percent gambling


• Online casino news


• Turbo-charged blackjack practice game


• Another hack resolved


• Contact email change
• 16 years and counting


• Can't split 10s?
• Overbetting
• EV charts
• The IPCA
• Basic strategy master
• Back to the future
• Site hack


• Better comp value
• Pit bosses are a pest
• 32Red buys Roxy Palace
• Winneronline is gone
• Paradise Win Casino
• Blackjack simple strategy


• Court refuses Ivey winnings
• Phil Ivey versus Crockfords
• 32Red does the right thing
• Wizard Of Odds sold
• Gambling addict sues Ritz
• Better blackjack conditions
• FL: the beat goes on
• Phil Ivey and the Borgata
• LadbrokesFOBT profit
• Chat with the Met
• "Bonus abuse" and the Met
• Casino industry crooks.
• Debate to curb the FOBTs
• Labour idea to ban FOBTs


• Ruby Fortune: terms buried
• Royal Vegas: bad outcome
• Russia illegalises gambling
• RV: player breaks no rules
• Gib casinos and UK laws
• The GGC (GRA) useless
• BetFred rigged games 9
• BetFred rigged games 8
• Betfred rigged games 7
• BetFred rigged games 6
• BetFred rigged games 5
• BetFred rigged games 4
• Phil Ivey: is he entitled?
• BetFred rigged games 3
• Betfred rigged games 2
• BetFred: rigged games 1
•  UK GLA Act 2013
• 888.com and Facebook
• Crockfords denies Phil Ivey
• Bad dealers
• Betfair Blackjack test
• Playtech software update
• Cheap blackjack
• Hippodrome Casino


• The UK's FOBT addiction
• Conan Casino beware
• Intercasino misleading
• Fortune Lounge
• UK Gambling Commission


• Small Claims Court
• Gamcare
• Full Tilt Poker saved
• Full Tilt ponzi scheme
• Casino Barcelona
• Irakli Kacharava
• Betfair processor no pay
• Full Tilt licensing meeting
• UK Gambling Commission
• Full Tilt Poker investors
• Full Tilt license suspended
• Twitter
• Betfair resolution
• Casino Web Scripts 2
• 32Red bonus marketing
• Casino Web Scripts 1
• Poker domains seized
• eCOGRA independent?
• Easystreet Sports theft
• Betfair to Gibraltar
• Rigged blackjack 2
• Betfair responses
• Rigged blackjack
• 888.com theft
• Betfair poker problem
• UK gambling controls
• Harry Reid


• eWallet Xpress
• Kevin Stillmock
• Blog back up
• Betfair happy hour
• Ladbrokes bonus increase
• Absolute Poker tricks US
• Absolute Poker rigged
• Last position no difference
• Basic strategy simplified
• Online casino bonuses
• Righthaven LLC
• Ladbrokes bonus rules
• Malta LGA nonsense
• Purple Lounge theft
• UK affiliates issue
• Online casino problems
• GPWA code of conduct
• One Club Casino problems
• Rushmore theft resolved
• Realtime Gaming cheats
• Absolute Poker Ultimate Bet
• Rushmore Casino theft
• Ask gamblers service
• Intercasino bonus terms
• Profitting from poverty
• Gambling dooms UK to ruin
• Want To Stop Gambling
• Gambling Therapy
• Gordon Moody Association
• Breakeven
• Online gambling jobs
• Gamblock
• Gamble Aware
• Gamblers Anonymous
• Gamcare
• Video poker auto hold
• Gambling Wages help offer
• Blackjack double down
• Intercasino rules
• Tradition Casino warning
• Tradition Casino problem
• Be The Dealer
• eCOGRA approved casinos
• UK underage gambling
• iGaming Super Show
• eCOGRA reputable portals
• eCOGRA exposed
• Slots Oasis warning
• Slots Oasis problem
• HR 2267 comments
• HR 2267 proposed bill
• Search fully functional
• Gambling hearing delayed
• Betfair download blackjack
• Betfair blackjack
• The Federal Wie Act
• Casino Rewards warning
• Kahnawake dumps GP
• GP dumps Microgaming
• UK online gambling
• Gambling checklist
• Online casino problems
• Gambling Grumbles
• Casino Rewards
• Brian Cullingworth
• Casino Wager Tracker
• Grand Prive affiliates
• Jackpots Heaven Casino
• Kahnawake commission
• UK gambling problem
• eCOGRA and Grand Prive
• Bet365 misleading bonus
• Mastercard and Visa
• Online gambling rules
• 32Red sign up bonus
• Ladbrokes data theft
• Ladbrokes unfair settlement
• Palace group bonus rules
• Grand Prive and eCOGRA


• Blackjack in the UK
• Seminole Hard Rock
• The APCW and MG
• Sportsbook.com
• Slot beaters slot strategy
• Rushmore Casino theft
• Paddy Power affiliates
• Slots
• 888.com problem
• Neteller contest winner
• 888.com bonus problem
• Casino Club meeting
• Online casino directory
• 32Red debit card bonus
• Blue Square Casino
• Budapest Affiliate Expo
• Rushmore payment issues
• Modern Blackjack volume 1
• Eurolinx certain insolvency
• Buzzluck winnings theft
• PaddyPower removed
• 32Red lawsuit
• William Hill Casino Club
• Betfair video poker
• APCW underage children
• Odds page updates
• VP Genius
• Video poker page updates
• Blackjack page updates
• Progression page updates
• Single deck page updates
• Betfair Playtech license
• Cherry Red Casino
• Online gambling debate
• William Hill & Teddy Sagi
• Rogue casinos section
• Pontoon correction
• Microgaming poker scandal
• Casino Club confiscation
• Casino Club steals €8000
• Villa Fortuna Casino
• Grand Prive affiliate issue
• CAP and Cardspike 2
• Virgin Casino bad results
• CAP and Cardspike 1


• iNetbet removal from site
• Mario Galea and Malta LGA
• Cold Mountain Resort
• The AGCC
• Moneybookers privacy
• Virtual Casino rebranding
• Captain Jack Casino
• Royal Ace Casino
• Ringmaster Casino
• Catseye Casino
• Lucky Palm Casino
• Pharaohs Gold Casino
• Goldstream Casino
• Plantet 7 Casino
• Betfair bonus confiscation
• Malta LGA worthless
• The GIA
• Interwetten theft of £5000
• Lucky Ace winnings stolen
• The KGC and Absolute


• HippoJo Casino
• Microgaming All Aces VP
• Neteller issues
• Lou Fabiano responds
• Lou Fabiano selling stats
• Betfair Zero Lounge
• ICE 2007 brief visit
• RTG cancels ICE visit


• Crystal Palace Casino theft
• eCOGRA & Jackpot Factory
• English Harbour cheating
• Boss Media single deck
• Bella Vegas / Grand Prive
• The KGC worthless
• Gambling Federation
• Playtech sued
• Meeting Andrew Beveridge
• Playtech confirmed listing
• African Palace Casino
• G-Fed ICE discussion
• Playtech ICE meeting
• Playtech issues escalation
• Chartwell hands off


• Crystal Gaming silence
• Price Waterhouse Cooper
• Crystal Gaming flotation 2
• Vegas Frontier
• Crystal Gaming flotation 1
• Playtech public listing
• African Palace & Indio
• Kiwi Casino
• Rochester Casino
• G-Fed theft 2
• Warren Cloud best avoided
• Golden Palace stupidity 3
• Golden Palace stupidity 2
• G-Fed theft 1
• Golden Palace stupidity 1
• Russia online expansion
• Wan Doy Pairs Poker
• Microgaming CPU usage
• Net Entertainment RNG
• Cryptologic & William Hill
• Casino growth slow
• English Harbour paying
• Fraudster or not
• Blackjack surrender
• Integrity casino group audit